Work Package 7
Risk management, cost of energy and final assessment
Objective: Analyse risk and cost data from previous Work Packages and provide recommendations
The ultimate goal of this Work Package is to gather all the information from the previous work packages and analyse its influence on economics and risk assessment, in order to develop guidance and recommendations from the project’s unique offshore experience.
For these purposes, this Work Package will:
- Assess LCOE impact of innovations and technologies tested in WP2-6.
- Reduce OPEX uncertainty with open-sea data including offshore operations from WP6
- Develop metrics in order to quantify and track the uncertainty and risk involved in all stages of the project and set appropriate mitigation measures for the identified risks
- Develop guidance from the unique sea experience at sea in order to set the path forward
- Catalogue the improvements in CO2 savings (LCA) and reduction of the energy payback period from an adequate management of the operation of the device
- Display the real cost of wave energy though the SCOE assessment and its competitiveness with respect other energy sources in the future energy mix.
Task to be performed
Risk and uncertainty assessment and management
The risk evaluated in this task will be divided as (1) the risk arising from the technology brought into the project to achieve the objectives of the project, and (2) the risk related to the specific activities carried out as part of the project.
The technology brought into the project has to achieve an initial level of risk control that is considered compatible with the level of development and with the risks affecting the objectives of the project or, at least, actions that will be implemented during the project in a manner that this will not jeopardise the project objectives. Following normal practice, risk ownership will be assigned to the stakeholder with the technical and financial capability to implement the risk mitigation, the effectiveness of the latter being also covered by this ownership. The impact of the actions during the project on the technology should be covered as the second type of risk defined above. Therefore, an initial evaluation of risk will be carried out at the beginning of the project based on the device already deployed at bimep. The risk will be monitored during the project in order to evaluate the specific risks of the activities carried out during the project. Risk ownership will extend to updating the identified risk.
The methodology to be applied is defined in DNV-RP-A203 Technology Qualification (further adapted to marine renewables in the DNV-OSS-312 Certification of Wave and Tidal Energy Converters). It systematically identifies the novelties and uncertainties of the technology, the risks and their prioritisation.
The risk levels are defined in a risk matrix that will need to be reviewed at the start of the process to confirm the risks that can be acceptable not only by the project but also by other stakeholders, such as bimep. The achievement of the targets is to be demonstrably achieved at the end of the project. In some cases, this will be an acceptable and quantifiable level of inaccuracy, for example on the evaluation of the LCOE. In case the targets are not demonstrably achieved, it is likely that an assessment of the remaining uncertainty is quantified and actions are proposed into the future development stage.
Assemble cost model and integrate operating data
A custom LCOE modelling tool will be assembled from other projects including EC-funded DTOcean and SI Ocean. Based on model requirement for maritime operation, cost data collection protocol will be communicated to WP6. Other OPEX information such as replacement of components will be estimated from information provided by WP2-5. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) of the project will be carried out, included net CO2 emissions/savings taking into account offshore operations fuel expenditures. The reduction in OPEX estimation achieved from this offshore experience will be assessed. As a macro-economic yardstick to support decision-making at policy level, society cost of energy (SCOE) will be estimated using existing models that factor-in job creation and other socio-economic impacts of the energy sector.
Economic, life-cycle and social impact assessment
The LCOE reduction from the baseline scenario contributed the innovations tested at-sea in OPERA will be assessed. Future cost reduction opportunities identified from the open-sea experience will be assessed including component improvements that could be expected from subsequent R&D. In particular, the impact of reliability improvements of various components on OPEX will be evaluated. Current assumptions used in the sector for OPEX estimation will be reviewed in light of the operating data and experience, and recommendations for more accurate OPEX calculation prepared. SCOE evaluations will be used to estimate the socio-economic impact of wave energy in different scenarios of future energy mix. The reduction in uncertainty in OPEX, LCOE, SCOE and LCA resulting from this open-sea experience will be assessed.
Final assessment and recommendations –Technical Strategy
Taking stock of the previous tasks and the project as a whole, a final assessment will be given of the current stage of the technologies with respect to survivability, the identified risk and mitigation measures implemented. Cost-reduction pathways for these technologies and wave energy in general will be updated with the newly available operating data. From this update information recommendations will be prepared that will include a specific focus on policy decisions regarding (1) support to SMEs and innovation in the sector, (2) R&D priorities and effective support approaches and (3) effective support to early deployment including WP5 results on standards. The project contribution will be reviewed from the perspective of the wave energy sector, and from energy sector at large including forecast LCA, LCOE and SCOE evolution from other renewables and conventional electricity generation.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 654.444